Tricking the Stock Market
One idea for a futuristic short-story we’ve been kicking around has turned out to not be so futuristic. As technology begins to dominate our lives and interactions, strange things begin to happen. Instant interactions we didn’t expect along with strange consequences. For those who know how to harness these feedback loops, there is an opportunity to exploit the system, just like there always has. This time it is digital and instantaneous.
If we look back at the last 2,000 years of history, we can see some over-arching trends, themes through-out and a look at what is old is new again. This is a re-print of a translated article from Issue 148 of Bit magazine in Portugal from January, 2011.
As far as prediction markets go, you wouldn’t expect to find one in a video game console, but that’s exactly what Nintendo did in the Wii with the Everybody Votes Channel.
Introduction to Prediction Markets
When you gather a suitably diverse group of people together, ask them a question and average their answers, the result tends to be more accurate than the result of any one person including experts. The implication of this, is that the crowd as a whole can make better informed judgements than traditional experts. There just needs to be an ideal way to extract those tiny bits of relative information from individuals in a consistent manner. Enter the prediction market.
Future predicting: What might happen in the next hundred years?
This is an article that ran in the December 1900 issue of Ladies Home Journal. It was predicting life 100 years into the future in the year 2001. The following is that article annotated with notes about how close or far off they really were with their predictions.
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